Historically, No. 1 seeds have won the vast majority of the NBA championships. Across 76 seasons, 50 No. 1 seeds, 16 No. 2 seeds, eight No. 3 seeds, one No. 4 seed and one No. 6 seed have won it all.

This year’s top seeds from either conference enter the postseason with different outlooks. Milwaukee finished with a league-best 58 wins thanks to yet another MVP-caliber season from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Powered by their fourth-ranked defense, the Bucks (+250) are heavy favorites to not only come out of the East, but also to win the Finals, just as they did in 2021.

Out West, Denver’s 53 victories paced the conference, though that pace slowed down after the All-Star break with a 12–11 record in 23 games since. Back-to-back reigning MVP Nikola Jokić has a more complete supporting cast in place this time around, but Phoenix (+500) and Golden State (+850) both have better odds to win the title than the Nuggets (+900).

The Suns’ odds shortened significantly when they made a blockbuster trade to acquire Kevin Durant at the deadline. Even though he’s played just eight games for Phoenix, the No. 4 seed in the West, the team will enter the playoffs as the favorite to win the conference for the second season in a row.

The Warriors have proven they can never be counted out after winning their fourth ring in eight years in 2022. They finished as the No. 6 seed this season, though, their lowest playoff positioning since 2013-14. That means Golden State did not earn home-court advantage, which could be a problem for a team that went 11–30 on the road. Still, the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green has more playoff experience together than any other team in the field.

Boston emerged from the Eastern Conference victorious a season ago and the No. 2 seed has the second-best odds to do so again, behind only Milwaukee. Led by the duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and a deep supporting cast, the Celtics (+350) have another first-year coach at the helm for this year’s run in Joe Mazzulla.

There’s also the 76ers (+900), led by the MVP favorite and the league’s leading scorer, Joel Embiid. No. 3 Philadelphia’s lack of recent playoff success hangs over the team, but this is the best roster assembled around Embiid, and the best he’s played in his career.

The Grizzlies (+2000) are back in the playoffs as the No. 2 seed for the second year in a row and star guard Ja Morant has shown he’s capable of taking over a series. Memphis has the third-best defense in the NBA, but injuries in the frontcourt could limit its ability to make it to May.

Depending on Paul George’s availability, the Clippers (+2800) are perhaps worth a look, though their Round 1 matchup with the Suns is a difficult draw. The Cavaliers (+4000) also added Donovan Mitchell in the offseason and finished with the league’s best defense, but this is their first playoff appearance since 2018.

And then there’s everyone’s favorite sleeper: The Beam Team. The Kings (+6600) not only have to play the defending champions in the first round but they also have the worst defense (No. 24) of any play-in or playoff team, though they can counter that with their top-ranked offense.

In the brief history of the play-in tournament, no team that qualified via the play-in has even won a series, let alone made a deep run.

The Lakers (+1200) are looking to buck that precedent as they are participating in the play-in tournament for the second time in three years. Even with a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the seventh-best odds seems a bit rich for a team that’s yet to secure its spot in the playoffs.

The Heat (+15000) also have their work cut out for them in that regard. Miami was one shot away from making the NBA Finals last year, but now has to go through the play-in tournament just to return to the postseason.

Once the final four playoff spots are decided, the field will shorten and championship odds will adjust accordingly. Keep an eye on where the Lakers end up, as they have the best title odds of any play-in team and could potentially play spoiler against their Round 1 opponent.